Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
