Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
